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FBN Holdings, GTBank, Access Bank most traded stocks W/W

The Nigerian bourse ended the week cumulatively on a less impressive note.

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The Nigerian bourse closed the trading session cumulatively bearish W/W, with the All Share Index dropping by 0.08% W/W, while market capitalization presently stands at N13.365 trillion.

  • A total turnover of 1.139 billion shares worth N12.692 billion in 17,109 deals was traded this week by investors on the floor of the Exchange, in contrast to a total of 1.226 billion shares valued at N10.842 billion that exchanged hands last week in 19,529 deals.
  • The Financial Services industry (measured by volume) led the activity chart with 870.300 million shares valued at N7.863 billion traded in 9,427 deals; thus contributing 76.43% and 61.95% to the total equity turnover volume and value respectively.
  • The Industrial Goods industry followed with 62.689 million shares worth N1.162 billion in 1,557 deals. In the third place was the ICT industry, with a turnover of 50.859 million shares worth N2.552 billion in 619 deals.
  • Trading in the top three equities, namely FBN Holdings Plc, Guaranty Trust Bank Plc, and Access Bank Plc. (measured by volume) accounted for 353.048 million shares worth N4.018 billion in 3,095 deals, contributing 31.00% and 31.66% to the total equity turnover volume and value respectively.
  • 32 equities appreciated at price during the week, higher than 23 equities in the previous week.
  • 31 equities depreciated in price, lower than 38 equities in the previous week, while 100 equities remained unchanged, lower than 102 equities recorded in the previous week.

Top 10 gainers W/W

  • WAPIC INSURANCE PLC up 12.12% to close at N0.37
  • LEARN AFRICA PLC up 9.62% to close at N1.14
  • UNITY BANK PLC up 9.62% to close at N0.57
  • NEIMETH INTERNATIONAL PHARMACEUTICALS PLC up 9.55% to close at N1.95
  • IKEJA HOTEL PLC up 9.52% to close at N0.92
  • CAP PLC up 8.57% to close at N17.10
  • BERGER PAINTS PLC up 7.44% to close at N6.50
  • UNION BANK NIG.PLC up 7.00% to close at N5.35
  • CONSOLIDATED HALLMARK INSURANCE PLC up 6.90% to close at N0.31
  • PRESTIGE ASSURANCE PLC up 5.77% to close at N0.55

Top 10 losers W/W

  • ASSOCIATED BUS COMPANY PLC down 16.67% to close at N0.30
  • NEM INSURANCE PLC down 9.78% to close at N2.03
  • TRIPPLE GEE AND COMPANY PLC down 9.09% to close at N0.40
  • UNIVERSITY PRESS PLC down 7.65% to close at N1.57
  • UNION DIAGNOSTIC & CLINICAL SERVICES PLC down 7.41 to close at N0.25
  • FCMB GROUP PLC down 6.36% to close at N2.06
  • CORNERSTONE INSURANCE PLC down 6.15% to close at N0.61
  • NIGERIAN AVIATION HANDLING COMPANY PLC down 6.10% to close at N2.00
  • NPF MICROFINANCE BANK PLC down 5.80% to close at N1.30
  • INTERNATIONAL BREWERIES PLC. down 5.71% to close at N3.30

Outlook

The Nigerian bourse ended the week cumulatively on a less impressive note, amid Brent crude prices closing above $43/Barrel.

  • It should be noted that prevailing macros, like the exponential growth in the COVID-19 caseloads across the world, dampened the resolve of foreign investors in taking a significant part in Nigeria’s stock market trading session, coupled with the prevalence of the dollar scarcity.
  • Buying pressure from notable financial brands, which include Union Bank, Unity Bank WAPIC, got neutralized by sell-offs recorded in FCMB, NEM, and International Breweries.
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COMMODITIES

Oil prices plunge on fears OPEC+ may increase Oil supply

Oil traders are becoming wary that OPEC+ will increase oil output and further distort the energy demand/supply dynamics.

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Oil prices lost more than a percent at the second trading session of the week. Oil traders are virtually going to extend short on concern that OPEC may agree to increase global supply in a meeting this week and Chinese demand may be dropping.

At the time of writing this report, Brent crude dropped by 1.2%, to trade at $62.91 after losing 1.1% in the past day. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped by 1.2%, to trade at$59.90 a barrel, having lost 1.4% on Monday.

Oil traders are becoming wary that OPEC and its allies, a group often referred to as OPEC+, will increase oil output and further distort the energy demand/supply dynamics.

The group meets is scheduled to hold on Thursday as discussions might include allowing as much as 1.5 million barrels per day of crude oil back into the market.

Stephen Innes, Chief Global Market Strategist at Axi in a note to our source  explained why the OPEC+ meeting matters most to many oil traders.

“Constructive oil market fundamentals have blown slightly off course ahead of the OPEC + meeting on Thursday as oil prices took to the plunge pool overnight, with Brent back to the soft US$63 handle after trading as high as $66.82 only last Thursday.

“Commodities were mostly weak overnight as the dollar regained a bit of ground. OPEC+ will meet this Thursday, and expectations are that despite Saudi Arabia’s call for caution, most members will push for an increase in output,” Innes stated.

Bottom line: energy pundits expect the all-important meeting this week in being one of the most interesting oil meetings in Q1, with Saudi Arabia urging producers to remain “extremely cautious”.

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COMMODITIES

Gold posts worst monthly decline since 2016, as U.S dollar keeps rising

The precious metal posted its worst monthly decline since 2016 as gold prices broke below the $1,750 support.

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Gold has of late been under immense pressure, as the Dollar Index surged to a one-week high of 90.8. The safe-haven currency is an outright alternative to gold and typically pressures gold when it gains.

The precious metal posted its worst monthly decline since 2016 as gold prices broke below the $1,750 support at the last trading session of the week, following most commodities and global stocks lower for a second straight day as global investors readjusted their portfolios.

With Friday being the last trading session for the month of February, it wrapped up the month with a 6.6% decline, its worst since a 7.2% decline in November 2016.

Gold for April delivery lost about 2.6% to settle at $1,728.80 per ounce. It earlier plunged to $1,715.05, its lowest point since a June 8 bottom of $1,700.10.

For the week, the precious metal contract lost about 2.7% in value, following through with the previous week’s drop of 2.5%.

Stephen Innes, Chief Global Market Strategist at Axi, in a note to our source, spoke on other prevailing macros weighing heavily on gold prices

“The rise in real yields has seen gold under pressure with everyone selling. Although positioning is cleaner, the overall market is still long, and ETF selling negatively affects the market on actual position clean out rather than just speculative sell-off. Which is more worryingly an early sign of a capitulation.”

Bottom Line

Gold traders are not keen on going bullish, at least for the near term, on the bias that rising U.S Treasury yields see investors showing less interest in the yellow metal.

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CURRENCIES

Exchange rate stabilises at N410/$1 as oil price rallies above $65 per barrel

The exchange rate between the Naira and the US Dollar closed at N410/$1 at the Investors and Exporters window on Monday as oil prices hit $65.24 per barrel

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Monday 22nd February 2021: The exchange rate between the Naira and the US Dollar closed at N410/$1 at the Investors and Exporters window, where forex is traded officially.

Naira remained stable on the NAFEX window to stand at N470 to a dollar on Monday, which is the same rate it closed on the previous trading day.

Also, Naira depreciated on the parallel market to close at N480/$1 on Monday, 22nd February 2021. This represents a N2 drop when compared to N478/$1 recorded on Friday, 19th February 2021.

Brent Crude oil price hit a record high as it closed at $65.24 per barrel as Goldman Sach’s projection indicates bullish trades in Q2 2020.

Trading at the official NAFEX window

The exchange rate between the Naira and Dollar at the Investors and Exporters (I&E) window maintained the same rate as recorded on Friday last week to close at N410/$1 on Monday, 22nd February 2021.

  • The opening indicative rate closed at N408.04 to a dollar on Monday. This represents a 43 kobo drop when compared to N407.61 to a dollar that was recorded the previous trading day on Friday, February 19, 2021.
  • An exchange rate of N412 to a dollar was the highest rate during intra-day trading before it closed at N410/$1. It also sold for as low as N389.75/$1 during intra-day trading.
  • Forex turnover at the Investor and Exporters (I&E) window declined by 20.8% on Monday, February 22, 2021.
  • According to the data tracked by Themoneymetrics from FMDQ, forex turnover decreased from $66.41 million recorded on Friday, February 19, 2021, to $52.58 million on Monday, February 22, 2021.

Cryptocurrency Watch

  • The largest cryptocurrency in the world, Bitcoin dipped by 4.76% on Monday to stand $54,753.48 as of 11:10pm.
  • This came after the world’s richest man, Elon Musk disclosed that the price of bitcoin and Ethereum seems to be high.
  • Meanwhile, three days ago, the world’s most demanded crypto-asset breached the $1 trillion market capitalisation to become the sixth most-valuable asset worldwide.
  • It is worth noting that, following the directive of the CBN prohibiting regulated financial institutions from dealing with Cryptos, Nigerians have moved towards peer-to-peer transactions trading directly without a third party.
  • According to a recent study seen by Themoneymetrics , the use of Bitcoin for peer-to-peer lending in Nigeria surged by 16% since the CBN directive took effect about 18 days ago

Crude oil prices top $64 per barrel

Crude oil prices picked up again on Monday as Brent Crude gained an additional $2.33 to close at $65.24 per barrel.

  • The increase represents a 3.7% increase when compared to $62.91 per barrel recorded on the previous trading day.
  • The price increase came shortly after Goldman Sach forecasted that oil prices would climb around $70 per barrel in the second quarter of the year.
  • It could also be attributed to the realization that U.S oil production and refineries will take a bit of time to resume their normal level of output after the Texas Freeze knocked out oil refineries.
  • The oil market rallied despite the news that Saudi Arabia and Russia might be on the verge of a disagreement again over output agreement, which the group will deliberate on in March.
  • Meanwhile, Brent closed at $65.24 (+3.7%), WTI closed at $61.49 (+3.8%), Bonny Light at $62.09 (-1.16%), and Natural Gas closed at $2.946 (-0.24%).

Declining external reserve despite bullish oil prices

Nigeria’s external reserve dipped further on Thursday, 18th February 2021, to stand at $35.47 billion.

  • This represents a decline of 0.15% compared to $35.53 billion recorded as of Wednesday, 17th February 2021.
  • Despite rallying oil prices, Nigeria’s external reserve has recorded a steady decline since the 25th of January 2021, losing a sum of $958.1 million in less than a month.
  • It is worth noting that despite the significant increase recorded earlier in January, the current reserve positive is only $99.9 million more than $35.37 billion recorded as of 31st December 2020.
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